The Hardest Interview 2 May 2026

| (\lambda) | Final national (E[b/g]) | Avg. children per family | Avg. utility per family | |-------------|----------------------------|--------------------------|--------------------------| | 0.05 | 1.023 | 2.91 | 0.955 | | 0.10 | 1.007 | 2.68 | 0.891 | | 0.15 | 0.994 | 2.44 | 0.847 |

where (\lambda) is unknown to the families but fixed. Families stop early if they a negative marginal utility from another child, but they have only noisy public information about the global ratio. the hardest interview 2

[ R_n = \fracB_nG_n,\quad B_n = B_n-1 + X_n,\ G_n = G_n-1 + (1-X_n) ] where (X_n \sim \textBernoulli(p_n)). | (\lambda) | Final national (E[b/g]) | Avg

Set (\Delta U = 0) → threshold (p_\textthresh = 2\lambda). Families stop early if they a negative marginal

If (\lambda = 0.1), threshold (p=0.2). If estimated (p < 0.2), they stop early. Families observe historical stops and national ratio changes. Using Bayesian learning, after several days they form a posterior on (\lambda). This influences future stopping.